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Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Go for improved Mangle!

Is it better to get improved mangle or master shapeshifter? With Idol of the corruptor; I think so. iMangle here I come!

Today I just thought of this when I saw the following item on wowhead. Idol of the Corruptor.

As if it was it's destiny, today we got General Vezax down. And guess what he dropped. And guess who got the item. Yep yours truly has the idol now. Now I don't have the time to do this at some point, but I have to do it now, tomorrow Ulduar is waiting again. (Btw more on the Vezax fight later. It is a really nice druid cat fight).

I tested it very shortly, just before we went Yogg-Saron. I did it on cat, and it has no cooldown and a very high proc rate. I guess it is a copy of Idol of Terror, but then with way higher stats. Also there is no cooldown what soever. I think the Idol of terror used to have one. The duration is also 12 seconds and not 10.

Ok so we know it is nice. The thing is, is it worth it taking iMangle for it?

The proc rate for me calculating miss is 61.5%. (see math block 1 below).

With this we can calculate the uptime on a 6 sec cycle and on a 4.5 sec cycle with a 12 seconds duration. This is a really complex thing. I did an attempt to it (see math block 2 and 3 below). If you have real math send it my way!
6 second cycle:
9.1% downtime.

4.5 second cycle:
4.2% downtime.

The difference is 4.9%

Now simplified; (It is late):
What does it give: 2.44% dodge and 1.98% crit for me.
4.9% extra downtime comes to 0.12% dodge and 0.10% crit.
In bossfights you have to consider the fact that you will be not able to dps some time. Meaning the buff drops often. The sooner it can be up the better. It is a stab in the dark but I would double those values. Then it is pretty significant.

For iMangle we would sacrifice Shapshifter and Master Shapeshifter. You dont want to drop anything else really.
2 points in Master Shapeshifter give 4% damage done = 4% threat.

iMangle gives threat back in a dps cycle. Taking a quick look at an old post by Kalon we can see that iMangle does 2.8% more threat.
I don't now how valid the stats currently are. But I want to believe that what he posted then is in general true.

In total we would loose 1.2% threat and gain dodge and a bit more SD.
Also we can go back to 5/5 furor which is really nice since you can't always choose the moment the pull is gonna be. Having a 100% certain 10 rage can avoid some nasty stuff.

As I have seldom threat issues I am willing to trade the threat for some extra dodge, especially when progressing in Ulduar. This will be my spec as of tomorrow: Link

Below you will find the math I used to calculate the values as mentioned in Block 1, 2 and 3.

Math Block 1
First of all the proc rate. Idol of Terror is said to have 68% proc rate ( I did a quick test on a lvl 83 target dummy. For me I got 52 procs in 51 hits, 28 crits and 6 misses. On hit/crit for me that comes down to 52 / (51 + 28) ~= 66%. So I'll take the 68% as a fact for now.
I also, with current gear, miss 2.33% percent of the time. I get parried (15% cap) 7.25% of the time. So that is a 100 - 2.33 - 7.25 = 90.42% hit chance.
Total percentage of proc = 68% * 90.42% ~= 61.5%. The chance to miss is 38.5%.

Math Block 2
When it procs it has to be renewed within 6 seconds or 12 seconds. So there are 2 chances not to drop it. The chance it drops is when they both miss = 38.5% ^ 2 = 14.8%
Every time mangle is off cd it can be renewed at 38.5% chance.
1 time: 38.5% ^ 1 = 38.5%
2 time: 38.5% ^ 1 = 14.8%
3 time: 38.5% ^ 1 = 5.7%
4 time: 38.5% ^ 1 = 2.2%
5 time: 38.5% ^ 1 = 0.8%

Now there is a 0.8% is will go to 5 misses.
This means that there is a 2.2% - 0.8% chance = 1.4% chance it will only go to 4 misses. This has been implemented below:

So if it drops is will be down for:
30 seconds 0.8% of the time
24 seconds 1.4% of the time
18 seconds 3.5% of the time.
12 sec 9.1% of the time.
6 sec 23.7% of the time.

Average downtime calculation:
time * percentage
-> 6 * 23.7% + 12 * 9.1% + etc.
-> 6 * 0.237 + 12 * 0.091 + etc.
The result is the average downtime.

Average downtime = 3.72 seconds IF it is down. Chance on that is 14.8% so average downtime with 12 seconds is 3.72 * 14.8% = 0.55 seconds per 6 seconds = 9.1% downtime.

Math Block 3
When it procs it has to be renewed within 4.5 seconds, or 9 seconds. If not it can be renewed after only a 1.5 second downtime. So there are 2 chances not to drop it.
(Most of the math is the same as in block 2)

So if it drops is will be down for:
19.5 seconds 0.8% of the time
15 seconds 1.4% of the time
10.5 seconds 3.5% of the time.
6 sec 9.1% of the time.
1.5 sec 23.7% of the time.

Average downtime calculation (see block 2)

Average downtime = 1.70 seconds IF it is down. Chance on that is 14.8% so average downtime with 12 seconds is 1.70 * 14.8% = 0.25 seconds per 6 seconds = 4.2% downtime.


  1. Marino, i lost you at the part where you went from downtimes once it drops to the average downtime. Can't seem to get the numbers you posted here, could you please say how you did that step?

  2. Hey Tarskin. I am pleased at least someone checks my math ;)

    Anyway, indeed I skipped that. It was late and I cba at that point. But you are right; I just edited block 2 to show you how I did it.

    It is simply the sum of all percentages multiplied by the downtime.

    Hope it is clear to you now.

    PS. Note that if you would go even further, 36, secs, 42 secs, etc) the downtime would co up a bit. This was so marginally that I didn't go any further then 5 steps of not reapplying after it had dropped.

  3. Hey Marino, i just delved a bit deeper into the influence of misses/parries on the talents performance if you have the idol.
    Was wondering if you'd care to check mine out and agree with the conclusions i make there.

  4. I think that you are missing some basic threat mechanics when you are saying that 4%dmg=4%threat.
    Bear's abilities of generating threat work different, but resuming to your post about mangle, it has a 1.3 multiplier if i remember right ... so again 4%dmg=4%dmg*1.3 , this said i doubt that iMangle can beat 5.2% increased threat...
    Correct me if I am wrong.

  5. @ D'hors
    He never said this is better then master shapeshifter for threat, he's just stating that IF you have the idol of the corruptor then improved mangle gives a boost to your survivability and threat compared to when you don't have the idol.

  6. I am coming with a correction the multiplier for mangle was 1.3 preWotlk, now it seems that it is 2.07, so this hardens my statement above.

  7. @Tarskin
    I may missunderstood the whole idea of this post, but the debate from the start "Is it better to get improved mangle or master shapeshifter? With Idol of the corruptor; I think so. iMangle here I come!" , makes me think that !

    In this case, if we are talking about a MT specc, then i would certainly prefer the extra threat, and less survivability since all the healers attention is upon me, but if we are going to an OT specc, mangle will be the least used ability on multiple adds, if we are talking about Auryia fight and on tanking cats, then the healers will be thankfull to you.

    In conclusion iMangle is only good for some particulary fights, and personally i wont get respecc for that.

    I also appreaciate the effort of "bringing to light" this aspect.
    Keep the good job up guys!

  8. @Tarskin,

    I will check asap. Which will be late tonight, after we are done raiding. Meanwhile if any of you find the time - D'hors I think you are up to the challange - please take a look at kalon's post.
    Would you redo the math with and without iMangle and with and without Master Shapeshifter.

    If you could find the time D'hors I'd really appreciate it. If you want, if it is too much to put in a comment, I'll give you my email.

    I would have done it myself yesterday, but as said. Not enough time at the moment, and it was late last night.

    PS I am mainly offtanking/co-tanking in Ulduar. Actually spent more time dpssing then tanking.
    However I do not want to be the guy that can't MT because of his spec. The times I was MT-ing I haven't failed much at keeping agro. So that is the reason I prefer to live longer rather then to make sure the adds stay on me.

  9. Still haven't found the time. 5 Hours of raiding we got in today and we got 7 bosses down. Mimiron and Vezax stand between us an Yogg-saron. Good chance we will see him tomorrow and after 2 days break we might kill him on Sunday or Monday.

    Oh I got t8.5 pants now too. To bad I had to enchant em for tanking and it really cuts inthe expertise I have. So I can't use it yet for 2t8 bonus.

  10. Semi-jealous of you :p We have big problems with people showing up on Zenedar right now, server gone too low population and has too many guilds trying to perform in Ulduar

    On subject, glad you didn't look yet as i made such a stupid mistake in the conclusion which is fixed now ^_^

  11. I got intrigued a bit about what to choose iMangle or MSS.

    So doing a bit of research, and less math, i found that using my bear stats, mangle puts up an average 2437 tp without iMangle or MSS.
    With iMangle threat is the same 2437.
    With MSS threat will change to 2534.

    Putting this numbers in a 3 minute fight, and considering that a player will push buttons exactly after cd and disregarding latency, we will find out that iMangle does a total of 99917 tp and MSS 78554 tp.

    So far it seems that iMangle wins, but i become more curious and added to my list 2 more columns (iMangle+MSS) and None of them.
    103894 tp for both and 75547 tp for none after a 3 min fight.

    In a normal rotation Maul+Mangle+Swipe+Lacerate+FF does 4161 tps Raw , 4217 tps with iMangle, 4290 tps with MSS and 4351 tps with both.

    To conclude this post i came with the conclusion that iMangle is worthless for a feral tank since it boosts only this ability.MSS may come in handy only if you have major threat issues (which can’t be solved with any buffs) since it boosts ALL abilities threat.

    Personally (as mostly an OT) i feel pretty comfortable with 5/5 Furor and 2/2 Brutal Impact (0/58/13 build).

    In the end, i want to thank RAWR team for giving permissions to their source code.

  12. @D'hors
    Thank you! Hmm am I right to conclude that you choose neither? Indeed, if you don't need the threat then it is good to choose none and get some others in you might like.

    However, in your comment you forgot to mention that iMangle does provide more dodge and crit, which is the reason I took it. And for me too it is option, when and only when you have Idol of the Corruptor.

    On a sidenote, I tanked Hodir again last night. Max frost resistance, 3 polar + ring, you don't even need a resistance flask. This time I was the only tank. 100% of the time I was MT.
    I had iMangle, but I didn't really have threat problems.
    I was wearing 4 frost resistance items that had no threat stats on them what soever and managed to keep threat easy. The only thing you have to watch out for is ranged that get a dps buff. They will easily overagro. But they woud do that anyway. So overall they have to stop a bit of dps making the fight last 5 seconds longer or so.

  13. Indeed i forgot to mentioned, that all post was reffering only on threat

  14. Posted this on Tarskin his blog.
    Just posting it here so the information is not external.

    My comment on his post:
    (pre information, 68% proc chance with 100% hit chance.

    Your calculation however is an interesting approach of the same thing I did. Each percentage means abnother 6 seconds downtime.
    10% - 3% * 6 + 3% * 12
    10% + 3% * 6.

    6 second mangle:
    Doing the math again; We are here then talking about a downtime of 10.2% + 3.3% + 1.0% + 0.3% + 0.1% = 14.9%

    That makes the following statement true:

    There is a 14.9% chance on a 6 seconds downtime, after which there is always a 12 second uptime.

    6 / (12 + 6) = 33.3% of the time there is a downtime which has a percentage of 14.9%.

    So the downtime is 14.9% * 33.3% ~= 5%

    For 4.5 sec cycle that is a bit more difficult. Still the same values count again, but it is not always 6 seconds.
    1.5 second downtime chance is 10.2%
    An additional 4.5 second downtime chance is 3.3% + 1.0% + 0.3% + 0.1% = 4.7%
    After that there is a "guaranteed" uptime again.

    So there is a downtime of 4.5 seconds for: 10.2% / 3 + 4.7% = 8.1%

    4.5 / (12 + 4.5) = 27.3% of the time there is a downtime which has a percentage of 8.1%.

    So the downtime is 8.1% / 27.3% ~= 2.2%

    Doing the match again with a hit of 90% the proc chance is 68% * 90% = 61.2% = 38.8% miss

    Times miss | percentage:
    2 | 15.1%
    3 | 5.8%
    4 | 2.3%
    5 | 0.9%
    6 | 0.3%
    7 | 0.1%
    8 | 0.1%

    6 sec rotation:
    6 sec downtime *
    (15.1 + 5.8 + 2.3 + 0.9 + 0.3 + 0.1 + 0.1)% = 24.6% * 33.3% = 8.2% downtime

    4.5 sec rotation:
    1.5 * 15.1% + 4.5 * 9.5% =
    ((15.1% / 3) + 9.5%) = 14.5% *
    14.5% * 27.3% = 4% downtime.

    Anyway this all doesn't matter because iMangle is better. That will be in my new post ;)

  15. The post after that disproves what i said here. Sadly iMangle (and no MSS in your spec) is not better in threat.