Go for improved Mangle!

Synopsis
Is it better to get improved mangle or master shapeshifter? With Idol of the corruptor; I think so. iMangle here I come!

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Today I just thought of this when I saw the following item on wowhead. Idol of the Corruptor.

As if it was it's destiny, today we got General Vezax down. And guess what he dropped. And guess who got the item. Yep yours truly has the idol now. Now I don't have the time to do this at some point, but I have to do it now, tomorrow Ulduar is waiting again. (Btw more on the Vezax fight later. It is a really nice druid cat fight).

I tested it very shortly, just before we went Yogg-Saron. I did it on cat, and it has no cooldown and a very high proc rate. I guess it is a copy of Idol of Terror, but then with way higher stats. Also there is no cooldown what soever. I think the Idol of terror used to have one. The duration is also 12 seconds and not 10.

Ok so we know it is nice. The thing is, is it worth it taking iMangle for it?

The proc rate for me calculating miss is 61.5%. (see math block 1 below).

With this we can calculate the uptime on a 6 sec cycle and on a 4.5 sec cycle with a 12 seconds duration. This is a really complex thing. I did an attempt to it (see math block 2 and 3 below). If you have real math send it my way!
6 second cycle:
9.1% downtime.

4.5 second cycle:
4.2% downtime.

The difference is 4.9%

Now simplified; (It is late):
What does it give: 2.44% dodge and 1.98% crit for me.
4.9% extra downtime comes to 0.12% dodge and 0.10% crit.
In bossfights you have to consider the fact that you will be not able to dps some time. Meaning the buff drops often. The sooner it can be up the better. It is a stab in the dark but I would double those values. Then it is pretty significant.

For iMangle we would sacrifice Shapshifter and Master Shapeshifter. You dont want to drop anything else really.
2 points in Master Shapeshifter give 4% damage done = 4% threat.

iMangle gives threat back in a dps cycle. Taking a quick look at an old post by Kalon we can see that iMangle does 2.8% more threat.
I don't now how valid the stats currently are. But I want to believe that what he posted then is in general true.

In total we would loose 1.2% threat and gain dodge and a bit more SD.
Also we can go back to 5/5 furor which is really nice since you can't always choose the moment the pull is gonna be. Having a 100% certain 10 rage can avoid some nasty stuff.

As I have seldom threat issues I am willing to trade the threat for some extra dodge, especially when progressing in Ulduar. This will be my spec as of tomorrow: Link


Below you will find the math I used to calculate the values as mentioned in Block 1, 2 and 3.

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Math Block 1
First of all the proc rate. Idol of Terror is said to have 68% proc rate (wowhead.com) I did a quick test on a lvl 83 target dummy. For me I got 52 procs in 51 hits, 28 crits and 6 misses. On hit/crit for me that comes down to 52 / (51 + 28) ~= 66%. So I'll take the 68% as a fact for now.
I also, with current gear, miss 2.33% percent of the time. I get parried (15% cap) 7.25% of the time. So that is a 100 - 2.33 - 7.25 = 90.42% hit chance.
Total percentage of proc = 68% * 90.42% ~= 61.5%. The chance to miss is 38.5%.

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Math Block 2
When it procs it has to be renewed within 6 seconds or 12 seconds. So there are 2 chances not to drop it. The chance it drops is when they both miss = 38.5% ^ 2 = 14.8%
Every time mangle is off cd it can be renewed at 38.5% chance.
1 time: 38.5% ^ 1 = 38.5%
2 time: 38.5% ^ 1 = 14.8%
3 time: 38.5% ^ 1 = 5.7%
4 time: 38.5% ^ 1 = 2.2%
5 time: 38.5% ^ 1 = 0.8%

Now there is a 0.8% is will go to 5 misses.
This means that there is a 2.2% - 0.8% chance = 1.4% chance it will only go to 4 misses. This has been implemented below:

So if it drops is will be down for:
30 seconds 0.8% of the time
24 seconds 1.4% of the time
18 seconds 3.5% of the time.
12 sec 9.1% of the time.
6 sec 23.7% of the time.

Average downtime calculation:
time * percentage
-> 6 * 23.7% + 12 * 9.1% + etc.
-> 6 * 0.237 + 12 * 0.091 + etc.
The result is the average downtime.

Average downtime = 3.72 seconds IF it is down. Chance on that is 14.8% so average downtime with 12 seconds is 3.72 * 14.8% = 0.55 seconds per 6 seconds = 9.1% downtime.

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Math Block 3
When it procs it has to be renewed within 4.5 seconds, or 9 seconds. If not it can be renewed after only a 1.5 second downtime. So there are 2 chances not to drop it.
(Most of the math is the same as in block 2)

So if it drops is will be down for:
19.5 seconds 0.8% of the time
15 seconds 1.4% of the time
10.5 seconds 3.5% of the time.
6 sec 9.1% of the time.
1.5 sec 23.7% of the time.

Average downtime calculation (see block 2)

Average downtime = 1.70 seconds IF it is down. Chance on that is 14.8% so average downtime with 12 seconds is 1.70 * 14.8% = 0.25 seconds per 6 seconds = 4.2% downtime.

Mangle & Swipe

Synopsis
The names of Mangle and Swipe have been changed. But even with the new names they might not work in macro's. Here's the solution.

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In addition of Karthis' post "Mangle - Skill name changes" I think it is important for people to be aware that his post was not fully complete (at least for Macro's and not RPB). I posted it as comment nr 6 there, but people might miss it. Therefore this post.

I use macro's to not cast Maul and make it easy to keep a cycle up, not having to spam buttons. Something Kalon brought to my attention in the first place.

This is the macro I used:

#showtooltip Mangle - Bear
/cast !Maul
/cast Mangle - Bear

This didn't work anymore. The reason being that the name has been changed to "Mangle (Bear)".
Still replacing "Mangle - Bear" by "Mangle (Bear)" did not work. To make it work you should be using the following:

#showtooltip Mangle (Bear)()
/cast !Maul
/cast Mangle (Bear)()

Same goes for Swipe, since that name has also been changed.

#showtooltip Swipe (Bear)()
/cast !Maul
/cast Swipe (Bear)()

This is probably a bug, something to be fixed by Blizzard later. I don't know if "Mangle (Bear)()" will stop working, though if I had to program it I would make it possible for both to be used so macro's with "()" will not stop working all of a sudden.

PS. This might very well be true for the cat versions too, but I am not using macro's for those. If you are keep this post in mind.

Rotation study (Blogsourcing)

Synopsis
Since I had so much trouble with the 12 second mangle rotation I tried some more and this is what I found.

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I started out dpssing, again on a lvl 80 dummy, and not berserking ever. Berserk will screw up whatever you are able to call a "rotation".

This is the DPS is did over a LONG time (calculated form white damage hits it is 45 minutes).


At the start I was at 3450, that then got to 3650. It went a bit down after some screwups in rotation, but it is a good average. 3.1 PTR servers are in America. Meaning that I did suffer a bit from latency. Renewing Rip and Rake had to be calculated. Do it at 0.5 seconds left, not too soon or the last tick won't get through, not too late or there is a too long period without Rake/Rip.

Below I will tell you what rules I tried to dps by which resulted in this. I ask you the same, if you are possible and willing. Tell me what you found on ptr (not using Mangle glyph). Don't Berserk and upload a screenshot (or post it on you own blog) and link it in as a comment. Judging from white hit damage there is a good comparison to what your total dps to mine would be. If yours is higher i'll try to find out why.

The rules I tried to live by:
Ability strategy:

• SR always up. If it is down and have no CP get 1 CP SR up at least. Then depending on Rip uptime do a 4/5 CP SR.
• Mangle over Rake. Rake does nice damage but Rip does a lot more. Mangle increases that with 30%. Mangle doesn't always have to drop before renewing.
• FB is overrated. It doesn't always crit. Rather keep the 5 CP to keep up SR and Rip then to let one of those drp.
• SR > Rip > Mangle > Rake
  

Energy strategy:

• WAIT! If SR, Rip, Mangle and Rake are up you have all the time of the world. Stock up on energy. Don't let it get too high because OoC procs a lot now. You should spend as little time as possible at 100 energy. (I'd like to be rogue and have 110 or 120 energy to have more time.)
• Don't get to 5 CP asap. Wait to see what happens. If Mangle and Rake need a refresh soon, stop at 2/3/4 CP, get engery refresh en and then wait for SR or Rip to drop to renew it.
  

CP Strategy:

• Try to go for 3CP SR. It is about the same time Rip takes. That is a way to go for a normalisation in Rotation. It will not always hold up and you are seldom able to do it, but it if the choise it is available do that. You will have max time to be ready to renew Rip (where a 2CP SR could have the SR needing refreshing before Rip. Als a 3CP SR gives you that little extra time to build a new 3CP SR after you have renewed Rip.
• The 3 ways to spend CP are SR, Rip and FB. FB should be avoided as much as possible. Saving up on energy and Mangle + Rake to get to 5CP might leave you with a lot of energy (having OoC).
• When to FB? Only when you have plenty of time left on Rip and SR. I find that to be about 12-14 seconds. It will not ensure having SR and Rip up 100% of the time, but the alternatives are worse. (As you see in 45 minutes I only did FB 33 times vs the 4 per 3 minutes I did before, not counting the extra FB I did after a Berserk).
  
• When not to FB: 1: Less then 12-14 seconds on SR only. Wait till the last moment (is having 100 energy) and refresh SR. If Mangle and Rake both drop, do it earlier. so Mangle and Rake are not of or at least not a long time. It is worth it to wait for 70 energy to be able to SR + Mangle + Rake immediately as a combo.
• When not to FB: 2: Less then 12-14 seconds on Rip only. The same as above. Try to avoid this situation. With high time left on Rip (10 sec) you should get the last of the 5 CP's from Mangle and Rake so you dont have them down or are forced to do an early Rip to refresh Mangle + Rake
• When not to FB: 3: Less then 12-14 seconds left on both, Rip to expire before SR. Wait till rip is expired and refresh. 1CP SR (or more if possible) right after.
• When not to FB: 4: Less then 12-14 seconds left on both, SR Expires before Rip. Depends on how long the difference is. If the difference is up 3 seconds you can refresh Rip just before SR drops. (Then 1CPSR after). If the difference is higher, refresh SR immediately (overwriting 10 seconds or so) and use the remaining seconds to get 5CP Rip asap.

This is kinda it. Would love to hear your input and see your tests.
PS, this is not a strategy I did when testing on live (3.0.8) servers. So applying this strategy on live servers can not be compared to my previously posted live dps test.